The world is full of uncertainty: accidents, storms, unruly financial markets, noisy communications. The world is also full of data. Probabilistic modeling and the related field of statistical ...

This is The Week in Data, our data journalism roundup. Here you’ll find the most-read FiveThirtyEight articles of the past week, as well as gems we spotted elsewhere on the Internet. Mass shootings: ...

Probability calculations determine the chance of a specific event occurring. This calculation factors in the number of positive events with respect to the total number of possible results. When you ...

Some economists are predicting that US recession risk is rising, and a downturn could arrive before the year is out, but the supporting data to date is still thin.

Surgeons operating on patients with advanced thyroid cancer are often conflicted when deciding how many lymph nodes they should remove to reduce the patient’s risk of recurrence. Surgeons operating on ...

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration set out to answer the question on everyone's mind this time of year. The NOAA released an interactive map that shows the historical probability of ...

The global financial services company said "hard data" was pointing to a prolonged period of difficulty for the U.S. economy.