US President Donald Trump’s 50-day pause ahead of possible secondary sanctions on Russia gifts the Kremlin a window to exploit the incremental gains of recent weeks in Ukraine’s east.

Russia now controls more than two-thirds of Ukraine’s Donetsk region — the main theater of the ground war. Russian forces have carved out a 10-mile-deep pocket around the Ukrainian troops defending the crucial city of Kostiantynivka, partly surrounding them from the east, south and west.

Our algorithms assess if these fires are linked to the conflict—letting us map Russia’s summer offensive in near real time. Heavy fire continues across the Dnieper river in the Kherson region. Much of this is caused by Russian drone strikes on farmland rather than a serious attempt to advance.