The key to the severity of impacts in the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico from strengthening Erin depends on how soon a turn to the northwest occurs with a near-miss versus a direct hit.

As summer peaks, so does the Atlantic hurricane season, and the first major storm is now on our doorstep. According to the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), Tropical Storm Erin is on a rapid westward path and is projected to strengthen into the Atlantic's first hurricane of the season as early as Thursday,

Tropical Storm Erin is tracking quickly westward through the open Atlantic waters and should become increasingly organized in the coming days, potentially reaching major hurricane intensity this weekend as it tracks just north of the Caribbean islands, where it could bring rain and gusty winds.